Election Prediction (For Fun)

We are two elections removed from our primary focus, the events of 2016. FOIA has slowed tremendously, and the government has done a masterful job of hiding more of the truth until post-election.

While we are still waiting on developments, we might as well offer an election prediction with the caveat that I have no special insight into elections or politics.

The popular vote in the last 4 elections has looked like this:

Quite obviously, 2020 was an outlier driven by COVID lockdowns.

I think that the Democrats will revert to the mean to a larger extent than the GOP. We are further removed from the Dobbs decision, Joe Biden is unpopular, and I don’t think there is much excitement for Kamala Harris. To the extent it’s become a referendum on Trump, he has enjoyed a post-Presidency improvement in his approval rating.

And what about the polls? We’ve never seen the national polls show a race this close before. Have they made improvements? Are Trump supporters less shy and more apt to respond to pollsters in 2024?

I think they are still undercutting his support, perhaps by 3-4 points.

Blue states are getting redder, and red states are getting more blue.

My prediction is:

It’s a large electoral win but I suspect the “battleground” states will very, very close.

I gave Trump Minnesota as the endorsements from the Somali community loom large in the metropolitan area. Similarly, I gave Trump Michigan where Dearborn will be decidedly less Democratic owing to events in the Middle East and significant “woke” concerns from the Muslim community, largely around pornographic books in schools and transgender issues - Trump is the only candidate that has talking about the latter.

I suspect New York and Illinois will be wins for Kamala, but the margins will be surprising, perhaps between 7-10 point wins for her (usually much larger in those states).

Virginia was the toughest call. I rolled with Trump based on national trends in voter registration (though Virginia doesnt have partisan registration, I think those trends will play there as well).

All in good fun.

Have a great election day, regardless of which candidate you support.

One last reminder, there was an Afghan national arrested for plotting terrorism on Election Day. Remember, if you see something suspicious, say something, and keep saying it until the issue is addressed.