As we continue waiting on developments (expected any day), I thought it would be a fun exercise to do some analysis of Trump’s 2024 campaign. This may not be for everyone and I recognize you’re all here for Russiagate and FOIA coverage, not my political analysis.
I view analysis as a skill set, and I believe you can pick up tools by taking on different assignments.
Challenges
Trump’s problems aren’t hard to diagnose. His approval levels have largely been stuck around 45% for years, though they briefly rose subsequent to impeachment 1.0 and prior to the COVID pandemic.
Currently, we have a situation where blue areas of the country are trending red owing to crime and a national discussion around critical race theory and DEI in schools. We saw that impact in Virginia and New York in recent elections.
Meanwhile, traditional red areas of the country are trending more blue on issues like marijuana and abortion. Part of that is the influx of residents leaving places like California, but much of it owes to the topic of abortion. In several deep red states, abortion referendums have been decided in favor of expanded access.
From now until the election, extensive coverage will be devoted to the various prosecutions of Trump rather than his campaign, and we often see networks like CNN cut from his speeches (if they cover them at all) back to a panel where they denounce and purport to fact-check whatever Trump says.
Trump has to find a way to score with independents and soft-Biden supporters.
There’s an old political adage that goes “It’s not what you say but how you say it.” That’s something Roger Stone expressed when talking about Trump’s successful 2016 campaign. But it ignores the dichotomy and polarization of Trump. If you ask one of the 55% of the people who don’t currently support Trump, they’ll likely express that it is what Trump has said, even if out of context, that matters. Therein lies a messaging problem that the Trump world has not recognized.
Website & Social Media
Take a look at the DonaldJTrump.com website. On the front page displayed prominently is a quote from Trump: "THEY’RE NOT AFTER ME, THEY’RE AFTER YOU…I’M JUST STANDING IN THE WAY!”
Try viewing that from an independent voter who isn’t particularly political. Does that message resonate or convey anything that impacts your life? It offers a vague suggestion that the government is coming after you, but if you aren't a billionaire who prepares financial statements for multi-million dollar bank loans or pays porn stars hush money, the sentiment probably doesn’t capture an independent voter’s concern.
Trump has failed to seize on an opportunity to pivot from the prosecutions and craft a message that conveys more relatable and relevant information. As an example, New York wants to seize his real estate. That’s a great opportunity to talk about asset seizure laws and real, extreme examples of people losing their homes for minor tax issues - something that would resonate better for that independent voter. They’re forcing Trump to post a huge bond to appeal in one case, that is a great opportunity to talk about bail reform and the criminal justice system - but within that discussion Trump could talk about the nonsensical New York laws that puts criminals right back on the street and suddenly a conversation that started about Trump overvaluing property could become an effective attack on the Democrat’s political platform. The opportunities are plentiful.
That’s what Trump needs to do. He has to score new points every time he speaks.
Look at his website some more. All the pictures convey a message, which all seem to be from speeches or interviews he has given. It’s not that they’re bad, they’re just ineffective for the 10% of voters Trump needs to sway. We’ve all seen Trump on stage at rallies or in interviews. There is a negative association of Trump with these events that brings forth a widely accepted impression of an arrogant blowhard rallying his troops. Where is the grandfather Trump, the one that is far more relatable? There are no pictures of Trump with his family or grandchildren, or with his children at a young age. Trump gets to decide whether his trials are about a billionaire riot-inciter or an aging grandfather who likes to play catch with his grandson. Throw on a sweater, some loafers, and change the conversation.
On the issues, Trump’s website is an eyesore and lacking substance. There is nothing that would warrant a share to social media platforms. Social media shares or engagements are the best KPI a campaign could ask for. As a marketing expert, Trump should know better. The News section is filled with trite writeups without consistency, and without connection to Trump’s agenda. It’s terrible. The entire website is awful.
Trump is currently posting exclusively on Truth Social, which limits his social media presence to people who already support him. That was part of a deal negotiated and it’s unclear when Trump will make a return to X. In his absence, a nasty group of supporters have taken up the mantle as his surrogates. People like Laura Loomer and Alex Bruesewitz. In the early primary season, these individuals launched disgusting invective towards DeSantis and his supporters, fracturing Trump’s base. It was around that time that I myself decided not to vote for Trump, with no plans to change my decision.
Trump has to finally make the change long called for and exercise discipline in all his social media posts and in who he associates with for the next six months. The 45% that support him aren’t going anywhere. He has to stop with the rantings, and focus his campaign on messaging surrounding real issues (like he did in 2016!). This election is solely about the 10% of voters that can be swayed. He can’t afford to turn them off with tweet storms reminding them of all the problems he has. Trump shouldn’t want his trials at the forefront of voter’s minds.
Campaigning
On Trump’s website, there is just one event scheduled. A rally in the middle of May.
That goes to a point about rallies as the primary means of campaigning. Remember, we are only concerned about the 10% of voters who can be swayed. It’s unlikely after 8 years that these 10% could be convinced to go to a rally which would take a minimum of 5 hours of commitment, often standing the entire time, to hear Trump’s message (which are usually not about substantive policy positions anyway). Rallies are good for driving turnout, not winning votes.
Consider a couple in their 30’s with 2 or 3 young children at home. While there are certainly some kids at Trump rallies, the prospect of dragging 6 or 7 year old kids to a rally in the hot summer or cold fall while the kids are begging to be literally anywhere else and throwing a tantrum is not something these families would consider. If they could get a babysitter, they’d likely prefer to go to dinner alone.
How can Trump reach this demographic? He has to change how he campaigns.
If Trump is going to win, he needs to engage in the older style of campaigning with events in auditoriums and spaces fitting less than 1,000 people. And the events have to be frequent enough to discourage the traveling supporter who will take the place of the 10%’er. I’m referencing the groups of people who follow Trump across the country and attend all his rallies, that’s not who Trump needs to reach. Having rallies where people can become widely recognized as “brick-suit” is ineffective. Tickets should be limited to residents within 100 miles of the event.
Trump has to be able to have events accessible to the 10%’ers. A convenient location and no lines to get in, with the events ending in an hour or less. Go shake some hands and take some pictures, they’re free advertising when they go on social media. That matters in states that will be decided by 30-40,000 votes.
Themes
Lee Zeldin and Governor Glenn Youngkin set the standard for the messaging Trump needs to embrace. They ran issue-focused campaigns that highlighted real examples.
People don’t care about Trump on trial, they want to know about what books are in the school library, whether their daughters are competing against men in athletics, and whether there are criminals repeatedly being let out of jail and committing more crime.
Where should Trump take his message? Deep blue cities.
Take an anti-crime and anti-drug message to Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles. No, Trump isn’t going to win California. But he can begin crafting his message, send his campaign staff out into the city to collect footage, and get plenty of examples from the worst areas of our country about what life is like under Democrat control.
Then Trump needs to take that honed message to Philadelphia, Chicago, New York City, Washington DC and Atlanta. Crime-ridden areas with large regional TV networks that extend to the suburbs. Crime is so rampant that people are ready for someone to recognize the problem and offer a solution.
Trump also needs a K-12 education plan that recognizes the real issues in spending and performance, and handles concerns about critical race theory, DEI, and the worsening of our school system. That’s a message you take to Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, rural Georgia, and New Hampshire.
Trump can borrow some pages from Reagan’s playbook too. Real examples of government spending abuses, there are plenty to choose from, with a few Milton Friedman quotes. Government spending is out of control, and the interest expense we pay annually is skyrocketing. Americans should be terrified of the interest on our debt, particularly as we head into what looks to be a severe recession. Nobody is talking enough about it, and Trump could get a lot of run with calling attention to a serious issue.
Russiagate 2.0
Last, we know there will be a disinformation campaign waged against Donald Trump. I don’t know what it is, but you can bet it’s coming as sure as night follows day. This owes to the lack of accountability over the original Russiagate which let everyone off the hook.
There is, in my estimation, a greymail component of this where operators so integral to American intelligence efforts were protected because looking behind that door would cause exceptional harm to intelligence collection. If you indicted certain individuals, their knowledge of our intelligence efforts could be subject to disclosure through court proceedings or disclosed of their own volition.
Disclosure would pierce the veil of this protection and that is likely what is most feared - a Trump that would go in and order widespread declassification of documents that would expose that the entirety of the Russian interference narrative of 2016 was fabricated. Once that happens, people will be looking for overt acts that extend the statute of limitations to throw people in prison.
With that context, it’s reasonable to expect a serious effort to accuse Trump of more Russia collusion or something along those lines, anything to keep him out of office.
While not a Trump supporter or voter this year, I’m hopeful our efforts will bear fruit to help set the record straight this summer.
It would be nice if Trump could articulate something deeper than “they spied on my campaign.” Multiple DOJ reports and many of our FOIA documents provide sufficient detail to go much further than this single statement. There are dozens of people who were swept up and irrevocably harmed, including Trump and his family. Amidst four new trials and investigations, Trump could do more to get a little sympathy bump in the polls by citing specific details and articulating the impact of all of this on real people.
Trump’s team has faith in “let Trump be Trump.” That echo chamber will result in Joe Biden being re-elected.
Blah, blah blah, “I decided not to vote for Trump . . . “ It’s now obvious to me that you care nothing about this country. That is so very sad. You seem to view YOUR VOTE as a social credit construct rather than your civic obligation to protect the freedoms of Americans. It’s not about you, Undead. It’s about moving this colossal ship away from the corrupt and deadly DNC iceberg it is fast approaching!
A good list well worth attention from the campaign. But until Trump stops declaring a hairsbreadth lead in the polls “winning” he’s not going to marshall the considerable talent he and his campaign have; and that will result in the worst scenario: an extremely close election.